This system is currently an active tropical depression under intense monitoring by official meteorological agencies, forecasted to intensify into named storm Isaias. Multi-agency ensemble observations and track forecasts are updated live below.
Local time · Active from 06 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT-6 to -
Real-time analysis of population and infrastructure exposure within the storm's wind field.
Radius: ~600 km
👥 Estimated Population at Risk
13.84Mpeople
🏥 Hospitals & Medical Centers
252facilities
🏕️ Evacuation Shelters & Centers
769centers
🏫 Schools & Critical Infrastructure
1846buildings
Basic Information
Peak Category
Tropical Depression
Minimum Pressure
959 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed
194 km/h
Region
Atlantic
Key Events
Formation
06 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT-6
22.1°N, 95.6°W
Frequently Asked Questions about Isaias
Isaias is currently located near 32.8°N, 86.8°W, with maximum sustained winds around 54 km/h (29 kt / 34 mph).
Isaias remains active as a Tropical Depression system, with maximum sustained winds around 54 km/h (29 kt / 34 mph).
Based on current track, wind field, and forecast intensity, StormAtlas evaluates the overall risk level for Isaias as HIGH. Primary potential hazards include: Damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding.
Isaias achieved maximum sustained winds of approximately 194 km/h (105 kt / 121 mph) and a minimum central pressure of approximately 959 hPa.
Multiple numerical weather prediction models project Isaias to continue along its predicted track. Check the interactive map above for updated path and uncertainty cone.
Isaias is projected to make landfall near United States, Florida, Navarre around October 9, 2026 at 10:44 PM with an estimated intensity of Tropical Depression.
According to current track forecasts, Isaias is expected to pass near Pensacola with a closest approach of approximately 69 km, suggesting a higher potential for direct impacts.
Based on current forecast models, Isaias is expected to begin affecting Pensacola or pass closest around October 11, 2026 at 12:00 AM. Please continue monitoring official updates and prepare accordingly.
According to current forecasts, Isaias is expected to pass approximately 148 km from Mobile, presenting a moderate risk of wind and rain impacts.
Based on current forecast models, Isaias is expected to begin affecting Mobile or pass closest around October 11, 2026 at 12:00 AM. Please continue monitoring official updates and prepare accordingly.
Based on track data, Isaias is expected to remain approximately 306 km from New Orleans, with minimal direct threats currently anticipated.
Based on track data, Isaias is expected to remain approximately 437 km from Cancun, with minimal direct threats currently anticipated.
Projected rainfall totals of approximately 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) may occur in affected areas, creating risks of flash flooding and urban flooding.
Yes. Tropical systems carry abundant moisture, and outer rainbands can trigger flash flooding, river flooding, and urban flooding.
Current numerical models project potential storm surge of approximately 6-9 ft (1.8-2.7 m) in low-lying coastal areas.
Adjust preparations based on the storm category and official advice. Secure outdoor items, prepare emergency supplies, keep backup power available, and follow official advisories.
Evacuation decisions must strictly follow official directives issued by local emergency management agencies. If an evacuation order is issued, evacuate immediately using designated routes. Do not rely solely on a single forecast model.
StormAtlas regularly updates based on publicly available data from international meteorological agencies. The latest data update was at October 10, 2026 at 03:12 PM.
Isaias developed over warm ocean waters under conditions of high atmospheric moisture and low vertical wind shear.
The forecast path integrates data from multiple international meteorological agencies and numerical weather prediction models (such as NHC, JMA, JTWC, and CMA) using ensemble forecasting methods to generate probabilistic forecast tracks.
Key Meteorological Milestones
Synthesized from official bulletins (NHC/NOAA, JMA, CMA, KMA). Licensed for non-commercial educational & academic research.
🌀
Genesis & Initial Classification
Tropical Depression
📅 06 Oct 2026 21:00 (06 Oct 2026 15:00 CST)🌐 22.1°N, 95.6°W🏛️ Official
Wind Speed54 km/h (29 kt)
Pressure1007 hPa
⚡
Named Storm Upgrade (TS)
Tropical Storm
📅 07 Oct 2026 09:00 (07 Oct 2026 03:00 CST)🌐 22.0°N, 94.1°W🏛️ Official
Wind Speed65 km/h (35 kt)
Pressure1004 hPa
🏆
Peak Lifetime Intensity (LMI)
Tropical Depression
📅 09 Oct 2026 12:20 (09 Oct 2026 07:20 CDT)🌐 27.0°N, 87.6°W🏛️ Official
Wind Speed194 km/h (105 kt)
Pressure959 hPa
📉 Pressure Drop-48 hPa
🚨
Coastal Landfall Event
📍 United States, Florida, Navarre
Tropical Depression
📅 09 Oct 2026 22:44 (09 Oct 2026 17:44 CDT)🌐 29.7°N, 86.8°W🏛️ Official
Wind Speed35 km/h (19 kt)
Pressure967 hPa
🔄
System Regeneration / Re-intensification
Tropical Depression
📅 09 Oct 2026 22:44 (09 Oct 2026 17:44 CDT)🌐 29.7°N, 86.8°W🏛️ Official
Wind Speed35 km/h (19 kt)
Pressure967 hPa
🌫️
Final Advisory / Dissipation
Tropical Depression
📅 10 Oct 2026 15:00 (10 Oct 2026 10:00 CDT)🌐 32.8°N, 86.8°W🏛️ Official
Wind Speed54 km/h (29 kt)
Pressure1006 hPa
💾Best-Track Scientific Dataset Exporter
⚪ Official Final Consolidated Archive
Synthesized research-grade meteorological data ready for Excel, Python Pandas, or GIS platforms, compliant with academic citations and multi-agency validation.
