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Major Hurricane Anggrek Track Map & Archive

Dissipated

Local time · Active from 11 Jan 2024 18:00 GMT+6 to 01 Feb 2024 19:00 GMT+7

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Estimated Storm Impact Analysis

Real-time analysis of population and infrastructure exposure within the storm's wind field.

Radius: ~600 km
👥 Estimated Population at Risk
13.84Mpeople
🏥 Hospitals & Medical Centers
252facilities
🏕️ Evacuation Shelters & Centers
769centers
🏫 Schools & Critical Infrastructure
1846buildings
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AI Historical Storm Matches

Compare historical storms by track, pressure changes, and rapid intensification patterns.

AI Trajectory Match
Olga96% Similarity Score
MAX: 209 m/s
MIN: 947 hPa
⚡ Rapid Intensification Risk:High Risk
View Historical Storm Track↗
Neville96% Similarity Score
MAX: 212 m/s
MIN: 947 hPa
⚡ Rapid Intensification Risk:High Risk
View Historical Storm Track↗
Fabien74% Similarity Score
MAX: 191 m/s
MIN: 962 hPa
⚡ Rapid Intensification Risk:High Risk
View Historical Storm Track↗

Basic Information

Peak Category

Extratropical Cyclone

Minimum Pressure

949 hPa

Maximum Wind Speed

209 km/h

Region

West Pacific

Key Events

Formation

11 Jan 2024 18:00 GMT+6

-8.6°N, 93.1°E

Dissipation

01 Feb 2024 19:00 GMT+7

-46.5°N, 106.6°E

Frequently Asked Questions about Anggrek

No, Anggrek is no longer active. It dissipated or transitioned into an extratropical cyclone on 2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z.
Anggrek formed on 2024-01-11T12:00:00.000Z and dissipated on 2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z, reaching a peak intensity of extratropical.

Storm Timeline

Anggrek at 46.5°S, 106.6°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 45.0°S, 104.1°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 43.5°S, 101.7°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 41.9°S, 99.4°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 40.2°S, 97.0°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 38.2°S, 94.6°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 36.4°S, 92.1°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 34.9°S, 89.5°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 0 km/h

Anggrek at 33.8°S, 87.0°E as Extratropical Cyclone with winds of 108 km/h (67 mph)

Anggrek at 33.0°S, 84.8°E as Tropical Storm with winds of 108 km/h (67 mph)

Anggrek's Track Anomaly: A Category 4 Indian Ocean Cyclone in 2024

According to the official JTWC best-track archive, Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek dissipated over the open South Indian Ocean on 18 January 2024. The system peaked with verified 1-minute sustained winds of 113 kt (209 km/h; 130 mph; 58.1 m/s) and a minimum central pressure of 949 hPa, a Category 4-equivalent cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The cyclone's primary impact was maritime and insular: the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued cyclone watches and warnings for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and nearby marine areas as Anggrek's track shifted in a highly unusual manner. All meteorological metrics in this retrospective come from official best-track archives and operational tropical cyclone reports.

The Track Anomaly That Defined Anggrek: From Monsoon Low to Ocean Wanderer

Anggrek never made landfall, yet the post-season best track shows a 113 kt cyclone that repeatedly defied consensus steering models. The name Anggrek was officially assigned once the system organised into a tropical cyclone in the eastern Indian Ocean, becoming a named storm of the 2023–24 Australian cyclone season. Anggrek began as a monsoon low west of Sumatra and moved slowly into a region where numerical models offered contradictory steering. Anggrek became a forecasting problem not simply because it reached major status, but because Anggrek's low-level centre decelerated, became nearly stationary, and then entered a long southwestward drift. Satellite imagery during mid-January showed a compact system with intermittent bursts of convection; the circulation was initially asymmetric, with most of the rainbands displaced to the south and east. Over the next 36 hours, the centre tightened and convective banding wrapped into a small eye.

The track anomaly was not a dramatic reversal, but it was enough to trigger emergency warning products. As the official forecast cone shifted westward and then southward, the Bureau of Meteorology adjusted warning zones for Christmas Island and Cocos (Keeling) Islands. For an open-ocean tropical cyclone, the difference between a direct hit and a near miss often comes down to a 50–100 km shift in the track. Anggrek forced agencies to acknowledge that the cyclone could not be treated as a benign open-ocean system. The post-season best track confirmed that Anggrek's motion was not smooth; there were periods of deceleration and an unusual west-southwest jog in the middle phase. That part of Anggrek's trajectory remains a key section of the official report because it demonstrates how small-scale convective bursts can alter the movement of a major cyclone. Anggrek's path was not linear, and every turn in the track carried real consequences for the communities and vessels inside the warning cone.

The Peak and the Plateau: 949 hPa at the Apex of Anggrek's Intensity

At its verified peak, Anggrek sustained winds of 113 kt (209 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 949 hPa—both figures drawn from the official best-track dataset.

| Metric | Value |
||
| Peak 1-minute sustained wind | 113 kt (209 km/h / 130 mph / 58.1 m/s) |
| Peak minimum central pressure | 949 hPa |
| Peak category | Category 4 (Saffir-Simpson equivalent) |

By NHC/JTWC standards, Anggrek was a major tropical cyclone. The 1-minute sustained wind of 113 kt places Anggrek at the lower-middle end of Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, above the threshold for catastrophic damage. The central pressure of 949 hPa is consistent with a deep but not extreme cyclone; for comparison, storms with minimum central pressures below 920 hPa rank among the most intense tropical cyclones on record. Anggrek's pressure-wind relationship was tight, an indication that the cyclone's core had become vertically connected and thermally efficient. Regional agencies that use 10-minute mean wind speeds would have reported a lower operational peak; JTWC's 1-minute metric is used here to maintain standardisation with NHC operational practice.

Operationally, Anggrek was a difficult storm for satellite intensity estimation. Anggrek's small eye was surrounded by a broken central dense overcast, and microwave imagery occasionally suggested an eyewall replacement cycle was in progress. Those features are typical of a Category 4 cyclone near its upper limit, but they also create ambiguity in real-time data. Post-season analysis benefits from scatterometer passes and a complete satellite record; those same data were not always available during the height of the storm. The final best track therefore uses a blend of objective and subjective estimates, with the 949 hPa value treated as the minimum pressure consistent with the wind field. Anggrek's intensity record is one of the most important data points for forecasters because it established a baseline for how similar systems in that basin should be classified.

Emergency Warnings for Anggrek: Not the Wind, but the Water

On the day Anggrek reached 949 hPa, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology placed the Cocos (Keeling) Islands under a cyclone watch, a warning product that was later upgraded as the official forecast cone shifted west. The primary hazard from Anggrek was not a direct strike; rather, it was a large radius of squally weather, very heavy rainfall, and dangerous marine conditions. Official warnings described wave heights that were hazardous to small craft and to ship-deck operations. Water, not wind, became the dominant risk in the final bulletins. Although Anggrek remained well offshore from the island groups, the geography of the eastern Indian Ocean means that even a small track shift can put a populated atoll directly in the path of a major cyclone.

Confirmed impacts in official summaries were largely confined to maritime zones. Anggrek generated a broad swell field that travelled hundreds of kilometres away from the centre. Ships transiting between Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean had to alter routes around Anggrek's outer circulation. For island communities, the emergency warning products were the only layer of protection. The Bureau's decision to keep the warning active despite an uncertain track reflected the operational reality of a 113 kt cyclone in open water. The post-season impact assessment concluded that no catastrophic landfall occurred, but the event underlined how quickly a watch-only scenario can become a full warning scenario in a remote ocean basin. Anggrek's legacy in the official warning archive is therefore not destruction, but caution. The storm showed that major tropical cyclone hazards can exist even when the centre remains far from populated coastlines.

The Meteorology Behind Anggrek: Warm Water, Weak Ridge, and Forecast Headaches

Anggrek's transition into a 949-hPa system relied on a combination of very warm water, low deep-layer shear, and a strong upper-level outflow channel. In mid-January, sea-surface temperatures around Anggrek in the eastern Indian Ocean were near or above 29 °C, providing a deep reservoir of energy. Atmospheric circulation was equally important: Anggrek sat in a zone where the trade-wind easterlies and an equatorial westerly wind burst converged. That convergence helped feed moisture into the storm's inner core. The outflow channel was most pronounced to the south, where a trough created a natural exhaust vent for the intense updrafts. This is the classic amplification recipe for a tropical cyclone, and Anggrek used it efficiently.

The track anomaly was related to the same pressure gradient that strengthened Anggrek. A mid-level ridge to the south was weak, so Anggrek moved slowly instead of accelerating poleward. As Anggrek approached the western edge of that ridge, model guidance disagreed about whether the ridge would build or retreat. In the end, Anggrek's own convection became a dominant steering factor. The low-level centre occasionally jumped toward the area of strongest thunderstorm activity, a behaviour that is common in small, intense cyclones but difficult to reproduce in dynamic models. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted the uncertainty in their track confidence messages, and the subsequent best-track analysis showed that Anggrek's actual path lay near the western edge of the model envelope. The storm therefore serves as clear evidence that intensity and track are not independent; the same warm ocean and convective organisation that made Anggrek powerful also made its path more difficult to predict.

Why Anggrek Matters: A Case Study for Long-Track, Low-Latitude Cyclones

The 113 kt best-track point from JTWC marks Anggrek as one of the stronger January cyclones in the South Indian Ocean in recent memory, but its lasting significance for forecasters is the manner in which it moved. Anggrek achieved Category 4 intensity and still missed every populated centre; however, the size of its warning cone and the uncertainties in its track demanded vigilance. For the Indian Ocean region, Anggrek became a case study in the value of conservative official messaging. The Bureau of Meteorology's decision to maintain a cyclone watch for remote islands even as the centre remained offshore reflected the reality that small track errors in a 113 kt cyclone are enough to turn a near-miss into a direct hit.

For ordinary island residents and marine crews, Anggrek is a reminder that tropical cyclone risk is not limited to landfall events. A slow-moving Category 4 storm in open water can produce waves, coastal erosion, and hazardous winds across a huge radius. It can also delay shipping, disrupt island supply chains, and complicate emergency logistics. The available data do not support a catastrophic damage claim, but the absence of a major landfall made Anggrek a classic near-miss with high consequences. Long-track, low-latitude cyclones like Anggrek test the ability of official agencies to deliver clear warnings without over-warning in an environment where land is scarce and data are limited. That challenge is likely to remain a central topic for tropical cyclone meteorologists in the post-season review process.

Source Archive: JTWC, BoM, and WMO Records for Anggrek

  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center (2024). Best-track and operational tropical cyclone products for the Southern Indian Ocean.
  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2024). Tropical cyclone warning centres and public cyclone information products.
  • World Meteorological Organization (2024). Regional tropical cyclone operational plan and naming list for the Australian region.